Dr. Chris Baker1
1The University of Melbourne, Australia
Biography:
Dr. Chris Baker is a Senior Research Fellow at The University of Melbourne in the School of Mathematics and Statistics, the Melbourne Centre for Data Science and the Centre of Excellence in Biosecurity Risk Analysis. Dr. Baker’s background is in applied mathematics, ecological modeling and epidemiology. They are the project lead for “Enhancing Models for Rapid Decision-Support in Emergency Animal Disease Outbreaks”.
Abstract:
Successful management of disease outbreaks requires deliberate and rapid response. As seen throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, mathematical modelling can provide important and novel insights from data as it gets collected, which provides an evidence base to support policy and decision-making. To improve modelling capability to support decision making in animal disease outbreak response in Australia, we are developing a suite of modelling workflows to estimate current spread and forecast future spread using outbreak data. We are also developing a range of decision-support workflows to improve how modelling can be used to support evidence-based policy. This work is through a joint project "Enhancing Models for Rapid Decision-Support in Emergency Animal Disease Outbreaks" with the Australian Research Data Commons, The University of Melbourne, the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation and the Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry. In this presentation I will provide an overview of forecasting and modelling workflows and describe how we are using them as the basis of simulation exercise workshops. These workshops will provide important insights on the uptake of modelling to support decision-making.